Edited 12:23 AM ET: projections reflect the latest news update.
Results - Sat Nov 7
✅ 4 hits · ⬆️ 4 good misses · ⬇️ 2 bad misses
The spreadsheet gets a gold star tonight. Don't tell it; it'll get ideas. 1 of 5 games ended 20+ apart.
| Player | Proj | FPTS | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studs | |||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 50 | 48.5 | ✅ -2 |
| Alperen Sengun | 43 | 31.5 | ⬇️ -12 · 32 min, quiet night |
| Jalen Brunson | 42 | 53 | ⬆️ +11 · same minutes, big night |
| Franz Wagner | 44 | 58 | ⬆️ +14 · 40 min (proj 34) |
| Jalen Johnson | 46 | 48.25 | ✅ +2 |
| Value | |||
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 31 | 48.5 | ⬆️ +18 · 32 min (proj 25) |
| Nolan Traore | 27 | 31.75 | ✅ +5 |
| Meleek Thomas | 25 | 15 | ⬇️ -10 · 24 min, quiet night |
| Aday Mara | 31 | 38.5 | ✅ +8 |
| Alexandre Sarr | 28 | 36 | ⬆️ +8 · same minutes, big night |
News calls: Anthony Davis (Questionable) sat · Jarrett Allen (Questionable) sat · Draymond Green (Questionable) played 34 min · Gui Santos (Questionable) played 12 min · Sam Merrill (Questionable) sat · Jordan Goodwin (Questionable) sat
Model tonight: MAE 7.4 FPTS across 103 players (season: 7.5).
These are my own projections for tonight's DraftKings Classic slate.
My model's MAE this season is 7.5 fantasy points (FPTS) per player (2,466 players over 17 slates). MAE (mean absolute error) is the average gap between my projection and what the player actually scored, high or low.
Projections refresh hourly until 5:30 ET, then every 10 minutes until the last game locks (9:00 ET). Every change is timestamped under Updates.
Season record (4 slates): ✅ 19 hits · ⬆️ 12 good misses · ⬇️ 9 bad misses
My lineup looks balanced until I start explaining it out loud. 5 games tonight. Top total: BKN@ATL 227.5; biggest spread: WAS@OKC (OKC -12.5), so those benches may clock in early.
| Game (ET) | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| BKN@ATL 7:30 | 227.5 | ATL -7.5 |
| NYK@CLE 8:00 | 222.5 | NYK -4.5 |
| WAS@OKC 8:00 | 222.5 | OKC -12.5 |
| ORL@GSW 8:30 | 222.5 | GSW -5.5 |
| HOU@PHX 9:00 | 223.5 | HOU -6.5 |
Studs (5)
I support team basketball until my most expensive player passes to someone I didn't roster.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | $10,400 | 50 | 32 |
| Alperen Sengun (HOU) | $8,900 | 43 | 31 |
| Jalen Brunson (NYK) | $8,200 | 42 | 36 |
| Franz Wagner (ORL) | $8,700 | 44 | 34 |
| Jalen Johnson (ATL) | $9,900 | 46 | 32 |
Value (5) - $5,500 and under
At these prices, I'm just looking for someone whose fourth-quarter role isn't holding a warmup shirt.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day'Ron Sharpe (BKN) | $5,100 | 31 | 25 |
| Nolan Traore (BKN) | $4,800 | 27 | 27 |
| Meleek Thomas (CLE) | $4,200 | 25 | 29 |
| Aday Mara (OKC) | $4,800 | 31 | 26 |
| Alexandre Sarr (WAS) | $4,800 | 28 | 25 |
Late swap
Games that haven't started yet, as of 8:30 ET
- Jordan Goodwin (PHX) is OUT.
News
- Now OUT: Anthony Davis (WAS) · Jarrett Allen (CLE) · Sam Merrill (CLE) · Jordan Goodwin (PHX)
- Now playing: Draymond Green (GSW) · Gui Santos (GSW)
- OKC without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace → Kenrich Williams 16 → 24 min
- BKN without Egor Demin, Joshua Jefferson, Ben Saraf → Nolan Traore 20 → 25 min
- ATL without Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale → Corey Kispert 10 → 15 min
- Back-to-back: ATL, CLE, OKC, WAS · 4th game in 6 nights: ATL, CLE, OKC, PHX, WAS
- Hot: Ajay Mitchell (OKC) 35 FPTS over the last 5 (21 season) · Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL) 35 FPTS over the last 5 (21 season) · Cold: Kevin Durant (HOU) 34 (45) · Anthony Davis (WAS) 42 (52)
Updates
(ET, newest first)
- 8:30 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 8:19 - Jordan Goodwin (PHX) OUT. Gui Santos (GSW) confirmed starting. Gui Santos: 11 → 22 FPTS (14 → 25 min, now 100% to play, was 83%). Value add: Collin Gillespie (PHX, $5,500, 21 FPTS) now 25 min. Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 8:00 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 7:57 - Value pick change: Aday Mara (OKC) replaces Jared McCain (OKC).
How I grade tonight: ✅ Hit = within 7.5 FPTS of my projection · ⬆️ Good miss = scored more than that · ⬇️ Bad miss = scored less. Results go at the top of this post after the last game.