Same projection, different bet
A single number hides the most important thing about a player: how wide his night can go. On Nov 4 we had Jabari Smith Jr. at 30.2 and Paul Reed at 30.1 fantasy points. Smith's range was 24.9 to 34.9; Reed's was 21.5 to 41.1. For a cash game you want the first shape. For a tournament you might want the second.
That's why every player shows a Floor and a Ceil. Floor is the 10th percentile of the model's simulated outcomes for him (a realistic bad night) and Ceil is the 90th (a realistic big night).
Minutes first
In the NBA, minutes drive fantasy points more than anything else, so projected minutes sit right next to the projection. When a starter is ruled out, his minutes don't vanish: they're handed to the teammates who will actually play them, and the whole team is re-projected.
Published, with the receipts
Our free daily projections post lists the slate's top studs and value plays every game day, then adds results after the games: how far each projection landed from the real score, and the model's average miss across every player on the slate.
Questions
When are NBA DFS projections posted?
Projections for the main slate post by midnight Eastern on game day and keep updating through the afternoon as injury news and lineups come in, until the last game locks.
What do p10 and p90 mean?
They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the model's simulated outcomes for that player: in the model, about one outcome in ten falls below p10 and one in ten lands above p90. They're model estimates, not a measured hit rate.
Are the projections guaranteed?
No. They are model estimates with ranges, not promises, and nothing here is betting advice.