Edited 12:54 AM ET: projections reflect the latest news update.
Results - Fri Nov 6
✅ 4 hits · ⬆️ 2 good misses · ⬇️ 4 bad misses
The algorithm had Myles Turner down for 27. Turner picked up early fouls and spent the night shitting the bed (13.75). 3 of 7 games ended 20+ apart.
| Player | Proj | FPTS | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studs | |||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 49 | 41.25 | ⬇️ -8 · 30 min, 31-pt game |
| Jayson Tatum | 48 | 62 | ⬆️ +14 · same minutes, big night |
| Cooper Flagg | 48 | 52.5 | ✅ +4 |
| Trae Young | 43 | 41.5 | ✅ -2 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 42 | 29.75 | ⬇️ -12 · 32 min, 24-pt game |
| Value | |||
| Rudy Gobert | 33 | 23.75 | ⬇️ -9 · 25 min (proj 31) |
| Myles Turner | 27 | 13.75 | ⬇️ -13 · 24 min, foul trouble |
| Kingston Flemings | 26 | 20.75 | ✅ -5 |
| Alexandre Sarr | 28 | 35 | ✅ +7 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 28 | 39.25 | ⬆️ +11 · 34 min (proj 28) |
News calls: Scottie Barnes (Questionable) sat · Anthony Davis (Questionable) sat · Jalen Johnson (Questionable) sat · Jarrett Allen (Questionable) sat · Immanuel Quickley (Questionable) sat · Peyton Watson (Questionable) played 28 min
Model tonight: MAE 8.0 FPTS across 156 players (season: 7.5).
These are my own projections for tonight's DraftKings Classic slate.
My model's MAE this season is 7.5 fantasy points (FPTS) per player (2,281 players over 16 slates). MAE (mean absolute error) is the average gap between my projection and what the player actually scored, high or low.
Projections refresh hourly until 5:00 ET, then every 10 minutes until the last game locks (8:00 ET). Every change is timestamped under Updates.
Season record (3 slates): ✅ 15 hits · ⬆️ 8 good misses · ⬇️ 7 bad misses
I call it lineup research so checking the same salaries again feels productive. 7 games tonight. Top total: PHI@CLE 231.5; biggest spread: BOS@CHA (BOS -10.5), so those benches may clock in early.
| Game (ET) | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| BOS@CHA 7:00 | 208.5 | BOS -10.5 |
| WAS@ATL 7:00 | 229.5 | ATL -8.5 |
| PHI@CLE 7:30 | 231.5 | PHI -2.5 |
| MIN@NOP 8:00 | 230.5 | MIN -3.5 |
| OKC@MEM 8:00 | 223.5 | OKC -4.5 |
| TOR@MIL 8:00 | 229.5 | TOR -4.5 |
| UTA@DAL 8:00 | 225.5 | DAL -6.5 |
Studs (5)
Cooper Flagg at $9,900 has officially priced himself out of my ability to call him a sleeper.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | $10,200 | 49 | 35 |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | $10,000 | 48 | 34 |
| Cooper Flagg (DAL) | $9,900 | 48 | 32 |
| Trae Young (WAS) | $8,100 | 43 | 31 |
| Tyrese Maxey (PHI) | $8,900 | 42 | 38 |
Value (5) - $5,500 and under
Rudy Gobert at $5,500 is how I end up rooting for missed shots and calling myself a basketball fan.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert (MIN) | $5,500 | 33 | 31 |
| Myles Turner (MIL) | $4,900 | 27 | 28 |
| Kingston Flemings (ATL) | $4,700 | 26 | 25 |
| Alexandre Sarr (WAS) | $5,100 | 28 | 24 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR) | $4,800 | 28 | 28 |
Late swap
Games that haven't started yet, as of 7:30 ET
- Scottie Barnes (TOR) is OUT.
- Immanuel Quickley (TOR) is OUT.
- Carson Cooper (MEM) is OUT.
News
- Now OUT: Scottie Barnes (TOR) · Anthony Davis (WAS) · Jalen Johnson (ATL) · Jarrett Allen (CLE) · Immanuel Quickley (TOR)
- Now playing: Peyton Watson (CLE)
- CHA without Kon Knueppel, Moussa Diabate, Dennis Schroder → Ryan Kalkbrenner 16 → 27 min, Coby White 19 → 28 min
- OKC without Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Jalen Williams → Kenrich Williams 14 → 25 min, Aday Mara 18 → 23 min
- MIN without Anthony Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr., Donte DiVincenzo → Jaylen Clark 10 → 21 min, Bones Hyland 11 → 18 min
- Back from injury: Santi Aldama (DAL), first game in 275 days, ~19 min
- 4th game in 6 nights: BOS, TOR
- Hot: Ty Jerome (MEM) 39 FPTS over the last 5 (22 season) · Ajay Mitchell (OKC) 34 FPTS over the last 5 (21 season) · Cold: Joel Embiid (PHI) 39 (53) · Coby White (CHA) 18 (29)
Updates
(ET, newest first)
- 7:40 - Immanuel Quickley (TOR) no longer listed as starting. Scottie Barnes (TOR) no longer listed as starting.
- 7:30 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 7:10 - Jarrett Allen (CLE) no longer listed as starting.
- 7:00 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
How I grade tonight: ✅ Hit = within 7.5 FPTS of my projection · ⬆️ Good miss = scored more than that · ⬇️ Bad miss = scored less. Results go at the top of this post after the last game.