TipoffLab DFS

Ownership projections

Projected ownership that moves when the news does

Every player shows an estimated share of lineups that will roster him, and the estimate updates with the news. When a starter is ruled out, the field tends to pile onto his replacement, and the estimate moves with it before lock.

  • Own% for every player on the slate
  • Moves with injury news, not frozen at noon
  • Sort by ownership to see the chalk at a glance
  • Feeds the GPP builds, which simulate a field of opponents

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Player Pool · sorted by Own%Nov 4, 2026 · sample view
Highest projected ownership
  • Nolan Traore29.5%
  • Saddiq Bey23.6%
  • Jalen Brunson19.1%
  • Day'Ron Sharpe18.7%
  • Anthony Davis18.5%
  • Jeremiah Fears16.3%
Moved by the Murphy news
  • Saddiq Bey5→24%
  • Jeremiah Fears12→16%
  • Karlo Matkovic1→8%

Tick = before the news. Bar = 6:03 PM ET.

Our real projections from Nov 4, 2026 (6:03 PM ET). Projections, not results.

The slate's highest projected ownership in the 6:03 PM ET revision on Nov 4.

News moves the field

When Trey Murphy III was ruled out on Nov 4, Saddiq Bey's projected ownership went from 5% to 24% in the next update. Jeremiah Fears went from 12% to 16% and Karlo Matkovic from 1% to 8%. An ownership number set in the morning would have missed all of it.

Chalk, leverage and contest type

In cash games you mostly want the best plays, owned or not. In tournaments, where you need to finish ahead of thousands of lineups, ownership tells you which good plays everyone else has too. Projected ownership is an estimate, so treat it as a guide to where the field is heading, not a certainty.

Questions

What is projected ownership in NBA DFS?

An estimate of the share of lineups in a contest that will include a player. A 25% owned player is expected in about one lineup in four.

Does ownership update after injury news?

Yes. It is re-estimated with each projection update, so a late scratch shows up in the replacement's ownership before lock.

Should I fade high-ownership players?

Not automatically. Chalk is often chalk for a good reason. Ownership matters most in large tournaments, where the question is which popular plays you're willing to share.

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