Edited 1:01 AM ET: projections reflect the latest news update.
Results - Thu Nov 5
✅ 5 hits · ⬆️ 2 good misses · ⬇️ 3 bad misses
The spreads said close games. The starters said goodnight early. 1 of 2 games ended 20+ apart.
| Player | Proj | FPTS | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studs | |||
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 57 | 43.5 | ⬇️ -14 · 31 min, quiet night |
| Stephen Curry | 43 | 41.25 | ✅ -2 |
| Devin Booker | 41 | 49.75 | ⬆️ +9 · same minutes, big night |
| Franz Wagner | 40 | 54 | ⬆️ +14 · 38 min (proj 32) |
| Desmond Bane | 39 | 23 | ⬇️ -16 · 32 min (proj 36) |
| Value | |||
| Oso Ighodaro | 23 | 10.75 | ⬇️ -12 · 24 min, quiet night |
| Draymond Green | 28 | 27.25 | ✅ -1 |
| Klay Thompson | 22 | 19 | ✅ -3 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 16.5 | ✅ -8 |
| Tristan da Silva | 22 | 22.5 | ✅ +0 |
News calls: Jase Richardson 26 min, 24.5 FPTS (called 25 min) · Tristan da Silva 30 min, 22.5 FPTS (called 28 min)
Model tonight: MAE 6.3 FPTS across 51 players (season: 7.5).
These are my own projections for tonight's DraftKings Classic slate.
My model's MAE this season is 7.5 fantasy points (FPTS) per player (2,230 players over 15 slates). MAE (mean absolute error) is the average gap between my projection and what the player actually scored, high or low.
Projections refresh hourly until 7:00 ET, then every 10 minutes until the last game locks (10:00 ET). Every change is timestamped under Updates.
Season record (2 slates): ✅ 11 hits · ⬆️ 6 good misses · ⬇️ 3 bad misses
With a slate this small, the only way to be contrarian is to forget to set your lineup. 2 games tonight. Top total: MIA@GSW 235.5; biggest spread: MIA@GSW (GSW -3.5).
| Game (ET) | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| ORL@PHX 9:00 | 222.5 | PHX -1.5 |
| MIA@GSW 10:00 | 235.5 | GSW -3.5 |
Studs (5)
Giannis is $11,000, or 22% of your budget for one guy. He's worth it, and he knows it.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA) | $11,000 | 57 | 32 |
| Stephen Curry (GSW) | $8,200 | 43 | 31 |
| Devin Booker (PHX) | $8,500 | 41 | 35 |
| Franz Wagner (ORL) | $8,700 | 40 | 32 |
| Desmond Bane (ORL) | $7,200 | 39 | 36 |
Value (5) - $5,500 and under
Draymond at $5,500: the projection covers his rebounds and assists. The technical fouls are a free bonus.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oso Ighodaro (PHX) | $4,500 | 23 | 25 |
| Draymond Green (GSW) | $5,500 | 28 | 29 |
| Klay Thompson (MIA) | $4,400 | 22 | 26 |
| Andrew Wiggins (MIA) | $5,000 | 24 | 28 |
| Tristan da Silva (ORL) | $5,300 | 22 | 28 |
MIA note: I list two per team; Pelle Larsson ($5,200, 23 FPTS) is next up and would also make the value list.
News
- ORL without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs → Jase Richardson 14 → 25 min, Tristan da Silva 23 → 28 min
- Back-to-back: MIA, PHX
- Hot: Davion Mitchell (MIA) 35 FPTS over the last 5 (17 season) · Pelle Larsson (MIA) 27 FPTS over the last 5 (17 season) · Cold: Jalen Green (PHX) 23 (33) · Andrew Wiggins (MIA) 18 (29)
Updates
(ET, newest first)
- 8:37 - Projections updated to the latest news. Studs unchanged. Value pick change: Oso Ighodaro (PHX) replaces Collin Gillespie (PHX).
- 8:02 - Projections updated to the latest news. Studs unchanged. Value unchanged. Lines: ORL@PHX total 221.5 → 222.5, MIA@GSW GSW -6.5 → GSW -3.5, MIA@GSW total 233.5 → 235.5.
- 7:10 - Klay Thompson (MIA) confirmed starting. Jase Richardson (ORL) confirmed starting. Tristan da Silva (ORL) no longer listed as starting. Collin Gillespie (PHX) no longer listed as starting.
- 4:10 - Jordan Goodwin: 6 → 0 FPTS (18 → 0 min, now 0% to play, was 36%).
How I grade tonight: ✅ Hit = within 7.5 FPTS of my projection · ⬆️ Good miss = scored more than that · ⬇️ Bad miss = scored less. Results go at the top of this post after the last game.