Edited 11:10 AM ET: projections reflect the latest news update.
Indiana: earlier projections were fixed after a comment here. Indiana players were left out of tonight's picks while Zubac, Toppin and Oubre were Questionable; Zubac and Toppin are now playing and Oubre is OUT. The original numbers are under Updates.
Results - Wed Nov 4
✅ 6 hits · ⬆️ 4 good misses · ⬇️ 0 bad misses
The spreadsheet gets a gold star tonight. Don't tell it; it'll get ideas. 1 of 11 games ended 20+ apart.
| Player | Proj | FPTS | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Studs | |||
| Nikola Jokic | 62 | 70.5 | ⬆️ +8 · same minutes, big night |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 53 | 61.5 | ⬆️ +8 · same minutes, big night |
| Anthony Davis | 49 | 50.5 | ✅ +2 |
| Jalen Brunson | 46 | 44 | ✅ -2 |
| Cade Cunningham | 45 | 57.25 | ⬆️ +12 · 40 min (proj 34) |
| Value | |||
| Nolan Traore | 27 | 30.5 | ✅ +4 |
| Neemias Queta | 27 | 32.5 | ✅ +6 |
| Kyshawn George | 31 | 40 | ⬆️ +9 · 35 min (proj 29) |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 30 | 28.75 | ✅ -1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 19 | 12.75 | ✅ -6 |
News calls: Ivica Zubac (Questionable) played 19 min · Kelly Oubre Jr. (Questionable) sat · Bilal Coulibaly (Questionable) played 23 min · Alexandre Sarr (Questionable) sat · Obi Toppin (Questionable) played 19 min · Jordan Goodwin (Questionable) sat
Model tonight: MAE 7.2 FPTS across 248 players (season: 7.5).
These are my own projections for tonight's DraftKings Classic slate.
My model's MAE this season is 7.7 fantasy points (FPTS) per player (1,693 players over 13 slates). MAE (mean absolute error) is the average gap between my projection and what the player actually scored, high or low.
Projections refresh hourly until 5:00 ET, then every 10 minutes until the last game locks (9:00 ET). Every change is timestamped under Updates.
Season record (1 slate): ✅ 6 hits · ⬆️ 4 good misses · ⬇️ 0 bad misses
Polls closed last night; my projections are still counting, and unlike everyone else, they publish their margin of error. 11 games tonight. Top total: CHI@NYK 233.5; biggest spreads: CHI@NYK and MIL@BOS (both 11.5), so those benches may clock in early.
| Game (ET) | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| ATL@WAS 7:00 | 229.5 | ATL -1.5 |
| PHI@DET 7:00 | 219.5 | DET -2.5 |
| CHA@BKN 7:30 | 213.5 | CHA -3.5 |
| CHI@NYK 7:30 | 233.5 | NYK -11.5 |
| MIL@BOS 7:30 | 222.5 | BOS -11.5 |
| CLE@OKC 8:00 | 226.5 | OKC -3.5 |
| IND@MEM 8:00 | 228.5 | MEM -6.5 |
| UTA@NOP 8:00 | 231.5 | NOP -5.5 |
| MIN@HOU 8:30 | 218.5 | HOU -7.5 |
| POR@PHX 9:00 | 227.5 | POR -2.5 |
| TOR@DEN 9:00 | 231.5 | DEN -4.5 |
Studs (5)
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic (DEN) | $12,300 | 62 | 36 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | $10,300 | 53 | 35 |
| Anthony Davis (WAS) | $8,400 | 49 | 32 |
| Jalen Brunson (NYK) | $8,100 | 46 | 35 |
| Cade Cunningham (DET) | $9,300 | 45 | 34 |
Value (5) - $5,500 and under
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Traore (BKN) | $4,700 | 27 | 28 |
| Neemias Queta (BOS) | $4,900 | 27 | 24 |
| Kyshawn George (WAS) | $5,500 | 31 | 30 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe (BKN) | $5,300 | 30 | 25 |
| Meleek Thomas (CLE) | $3,800 | 23 | 25 |
Late swap
Games that haven't started yet, as of 8:58 ET
- Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR, $4,700) is starting: 30 FPTS in 28 min.
- Jordan Goodwin (PHX) is OUT.
News
- Questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) · Kelly Oubre Jr. (IND) · Obi Toppin (IND) · Jordan Goodwin (PHX) · Kobe Brown (IND) · Jakob Poeltl (TOR)
- BKN without Egor Demin, Drake Powell, Joshua Jefferson → Nolan Traore 21 → 28 min, Keon Ellis 17 → 22 min
- OKC without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace → Kenrich Williams 14 → 24 min
- ATL without Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale, Jalen Wilson → Luguentz Dort 22 → 28 min
- Back from injury: Kon Knueppel (CHA), first game in 201 days, ~25 min
- 4th game in 6 nights: BKN, BOS, CHA, HOU, IND, MIN, PHI, TOR
- Hot: Ty Jerome (MEM) 41 FPTS over the last 5 (22 season) · Brandon Miller (CHA) 49 FPTS over the last 5 (33 season) · Cold: DeMar DeRozan (DEN) 21 (37) · Anthony Davis (WAS) 37 (52)
Updates
(ET, newest first)
- 8:58 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 8:10 - Jordan Goodwin (PHX) OUT.
- 7:56 - Added a Late swap section for the games that haven't started: Meleek Thomas lost his start to Tyrese Proctor.
- 7:41 - Late swap: Tyrese Proctor (CLE, $3,600) is starting and projects 24 FPTS in 25 min, which drops Meleek Thomas (CLE) to 19, so Proctor is the swap if you have Thomas (his minutes jumped late, so treat it as upside). Indiana starts Siakam, Nembhard, Braden Smith, Nesmith and Zubac: Braden Smith ($3,000) projects 25 FPTS in 28 min and Aaron Nesmith 26, while Quenton Jackson (18) and Jarace Walker (19) come off the bench, so they're swaps if you have them. Obi Toppin (IND) now Available. Meleek Thomas (CLE) no longer listed as starting. Meleek Thomas: 23 → 19 FPTS (25 → 20 min). Ivica Zubac: 18 → 29 FPTS (18 → 25 min, now 100% to play, was 87%). Value add: Braden Smith (IND, $3,000, 25 FPTS) now 28 min.
How I grade tonight: ✅ Hit = within 7.7 FPTS of my projection · ⬆️ Good miss = scored more than that · ⬇️ Bad miss = scored less. Results go at the top of this post after the last game.