Edited 8:31 PM ET: projections reflect the latest news update.
These are my own projections for tonight's DraftKings Classic slate.
My model's MAE this season is 7.4 fantasy points (FPTS) per player (2,735 players over 19 slates). MAE (mean absolute error) is the average gap between my projection and what the player actually scored, high or low.
Projections refresh hourly until 5:00 ET, then every 10 minutes until the last game locks (9:00 ET). Every change is timestamped under Updates.
Season record (5 slates): ✅ 25 hits · ⬆️ 14 good misses · ⬇️ 11 bad misses
I used to watch basketball to relax. Now I have opinions about who gets credited with an assist. 7 games tonight. Top total: LAL@ATL 237.5; biggest spread: WAS@DET (DET -10.5), so those benches may clock in early.
| Game (ET) | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHA 7:00 | 214.5 | CLE -8.5 |
| LAL@ATL 7:00 | 237.5 | ATL -1.5 |
| WAS@DET 7:00 | 217.5 | DET -10.5 |
| MEM@TOR 7:30 | 229.5 | TOR -3.5 |
| IND@DAL 8:00 | 227.5 | DAL -3.5 |
| DEN@HOU 8:30 | 219.5 | HOU -9.5 |
| SAS@PHX 9:00 | 227.5 | SAS -8.5 |
Studs (5)
Victor Wembanyama is $11,300. For that price, I want his blocks credited before the other guy finishes shooting.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | $11,300 | 56 | 32 |
| Cade Cunningham (DET) | $9,500 | 51 | 35 |
| Nikola Jokic (DEN) | $11,800 | 57 | 36 |
| Jalen Johnson (ATL) | $9,700 | 47 | 32 |
| Luka Doncic (LAL) | $12,000 | 67 | 36 |
Value (5) - $5,500 and under
Duncan Robinson is $5,300. I am prepared to call standing in the corner excellent positioning.
| Player | Salary | Proj FPTS | Min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith (IND) | $4,400 | 24 | 28 |
| Daniss Jenkins (DET) | $4,300 | 30 | 30 |
| Grayson Allen (CHA) | $5,200 | 28 | 28 |
| Duncan Robinson (DET) | $5,300 | 27 | 30 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter (TOR) | $5,300 | 26 | 31 |
Late swap
Games that haven't started yet, as of 8:31 ET
- Devin Vassell (SAS) is OUT.
- Jordan Goodwin (PHX) is OUT.
News
- Now OUT: Scottie Barnes (TOR)
- Now playing: Jamal Murray (DEN) · Nikola Jokic (DEN) · Luka Doncic (LAL) · Anthony Davis (WAS) · Christian Braun (DEN)
- CHA without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schroder → Tidjane Salaun 12 → 21 min, Coby White 18 → 26 min
- CLE without Sam Merrill → Tyrese Proctor 13 → 20 min
- MEM without Scotty Pippen Jr. → Kris Murray 10 → 16 min
- Back-to-back: DAL, DET, LAL · 4th game in 6 nights: ATL, CLE, DAL, LAL, PHX, SAS, WAS
- Hot: Victor Wembanyama (SAS) 70 FPTS over the last 5 (52 season) · Ty Jerome (MEM) 38 FPTS over the last 5 (22 season) · Cold: John Collins (DET) 15 (28) · Kevin Durant (HOU) 32 (45)
Updates
(ET, newest first)
- 8:31 - Jordan Goodwin (PHX) OUT. Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 8:06 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 7:35 - Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
- 7:21 - Jordan Goodwin (PHX) OUT. Late swap section updated for the games that haven't started.
How I grade tonight: ✅ Hit = within 7.4 FPTS of my projection · ⬆️ Good miss = scored more than that · ⬇️ Bad miss = scored less. Results go at the top of this post after the last game.